IMF data for 51 African economies show that the commodity net export price index rose in 14 of them and fell in 37 between January–February and March–May 2026. The commodity import price index rose in all 51.
By Rifat Rahman
What was measured
The International Monetary Fund’s Commodity Terms of Trade database (version 5.0.1, published 15 June 2026) tracks, for each country, the international prices of up to 45 commodities weighted by that country’s own trade in them. In the IMF’s words, the net index “proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices”.
This article uses three of the database’s series, each weighted to GDP and each using weights based on average trade over the preceding three years: a net export price index, an import price index and an export price index. For every economy, the average for January and February 2026 is compared with the average for March, April and May 2026, the latest month available in the source export used for this analysis. Changes are reported in index points and, separately, as a percentage of the January–February level.
The sample covers all 51 African economies with complete data for the period. Equatorial Guinea has no 2026 values in the database; Somalia and South Sudan are not included in it.
Fourteen rises, thirty-seven falls
The net index rose in 14 economies and fell in 37. The median change was −2.06 points.
The seven largest increases were in Gabon, +16.89 points (+22.77%); Angola, +14.33 points (+17.65%); the Republic of Congo, +13.49 points (+16.09%); Libya, +8.30 points (+10.13%); Algeria, +7.80 points (+8.59%); Chad, +6.96 points (+7.49%); and Nigeria, +4.50 points (+4.81%). These seven are the economies in the sample that the IMF’s World Economic Outlook of April 2026 classifies as fuel exporters — those whose fuel exports exceeded half of total exports on average in 2020–24.
Seven other economies recorded smaller increases: Ghana, +1.55 points (+1.41%); Sudan, +1.34 points (+1.30%); Guinea, +1.32 points (+1.21%); Niger, +0.83 points (+0.81%); the Democratic Republic of the Congo, +0.32 points (+0.30%); Cameroon, +0.27 points (+0.27%); and Sierra Leone, +0.02 points (+0.02%). In 5 economies the change was less than half a point in either direction.
The largest decreases were in Seychelles, −9.05 points (−7.43%); Liberia, −9.03 points (−8.01%); Mauritania, −5.27 points (−4.86%); Djibouti, −4.04 points (−3.84%); Mauritius, −3.66 points (−3.52%); and Morocco, −3.64 points (−3.44%). The index also fell in Kenya, −2.91 points (−2.83%); Ethiopia, −2.63 points (−2.54%); South Africa, −1.66 points (−1.62%); and Egypt, −0.62 points (−0.61%).
Import and export prices
The import price index rose in every one of the 51 economies, by between +0.11 points in Chad and +7.97 points in Liberia, with a median rise of +2.36 points. The export price index rose in 36 economies and fell in 15.
The two series moved differently in the two groups. In the seven fuel exporters, the export index rose by between +5.02 and +17.21 points, while the import index rose by no more than +1.24 points. In 22 of the 37 economies where the net index fell, the export index nonetheless rose.
Oil prices over the same months
The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $68.74 a barrel in January and February 2026 and $109.19 in March to May, a rise of 58.8%, according to daily data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The monthly average peaked at $117.29 in April.
In its April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration reported that military action in the Middle East had begun on 28 February 2026 and that the Strait of Hormuz had been effectively closed to shipping traffic since then. In a separate note on 7 April 2026, it described the first-quarter rise in the front-month Brent crude oil futures price as the largest on an inflation-adjusted basis in data going back to 1988.
This article does not estimate how much of the change in any country’s index is attributable to these events. The indices combine the prices of up to 45 commodities, and the data used here do not separate the contribution of any single commodity or cause.
What the data do not show
The indices measure prices, not quantities. They do not show changes in trade volumes, national income, government revenue or household welfare, and no such estimates are made here. The weights reflect trade patterns in the preceding three years, which may differ from trade during the period. The comparison covers three months against two; the IMF may revise the underlying data.
Data note
Figures are calculated from the IMF Commodity Terms of Trade database, v5.0.1 (published 15 June 2026; downloaded 23 August 2026), series “Commodity Net Export / Import / Export Price Index, Individual Commodities Weighted by Ratio of Net Exports / Imports / Exports to GDP”, weight type “Recent, Rolling weights, Index”. Country groups: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, Statistical Appendix, Table D. Oil prices: FRED series DCOILBRENTEU. The author’s Excel workbook is a working copy containing source values, series codes and calculation formulas. The original IMF CSV export was supplied separately for editorial verification.
About the author
Rifat Rahman is a data analyst specialising in public economic and government datasets. A Microsoft Certified Data Management Specialist, he spent four years working with the UN International Organization for Migration before joining Transparency International Bangladesh, where his work spans public procurement, national elections, and macroeconomic analysis. His analysis draws on open-source IMF, World Bank, and Eurostat primary data.
Sources
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026, for the dated account of oil-market disruption.
EIA Today in Energy, 7 April 2026, for the first-quarter Brent futures price comparison.
