The world will be focused on the UFC Octagon on Sunday when UFC Freedom 250 takes place on the South Lawn of the White House. The event is controversial, intriguing, and above all, unique.
A pair of title fights anchor the card. In the main event, Ilia Topuria looks to defend his lightweight crown against interim titleholder Justin Gaethje. The heat between Topuria and Gaethje has intensified throughout the week in D.C. Topuria took exception to Gaethje father calling him “another short guy” as well as the interim champion appearing to reference his now ex-wife after a nasty divorce. Gaethje, for his part, doesn’t believe he ever made a bad comment about Topuria’s ex and believes that the champion is just looking for extra motivation.
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The co-main event on Sunday night is equally compelling to fight fans. Alex Pereira, in just 12 fights over five years, has become one of the most beloved action stars of a generation. After conquering both middleweight and light heavyweight, the Brazilian looks to make history by taking a piece of the heavyweight title, which would make him the first fighter to do so across three divisions. He faces Ciryl Gane, who has repeatedly come up short in these spots.
With plenty more notable names on the card, combined with such a unique location and set of circumstances, there will no doubt be far more interest than normal in the event, including at sportsbooks. With that in mind, we’ve once again looked at all the event’s main card fights to identify our best bets for each, and in a rare moment, every fight at the event is a main card fight.
MORE UFC FREEDOM 250 COVERAGE: Complete staff predictions and picks | Best bets to consider | Viewer’s guide
After going 3-2 with our best bets for UFC 328, we are sitting just below .500 at 12-13 for the year. Now we look ahead to this weekend with the goal of getting back in the black, with our only rule remaining that all bets must be at odds of -250 or better. Let’s take a look at this week’s picks with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
UFC White House fight card predictions: Expert picks for pair of title fights at UFC Freedom 250
Brent Brookhouse
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
Steve Garcia moneyline (+124)
Lopes has shown a great chin against some guys with decent power, like Alexander Volkanovski and Jean Silva, but a thing about talking about a fighter showing a great chin is that it usually means that fighter gets hit too frequently. That is a factor in this fight, with Lopes absorbing twice as many punches per minute as Garcia. That is likely due in part to Lopes fighting better fighters than Garcia has. Still, Garcia hits like a truck and Lopes does leave big holes in his defense, which Garcia could take advantage of to score a minor upset in a very well-matched fight.
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
Fight to go the distance: Yes (+175)
Nickal’s striking has gotten better every time out, but it’s still not a fully developed part of his overall game. Nickal’s wrestling is going to be an advantage for him against anyone he ever fights, but Daukaus has a slick ground game. Those two things add up to a fight that Nickal should win, but one where he probably doesn’t find a stoppage despite the odds leaning pretty heavily on the fight not going the distance.
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
Under 1.5 rounds (-130)
The line on a Ruffy win by knockout is -225, which isn’t as appealing as simply taking the under. Benoit Saint-Denis showed that Ruffy may have some weaknesses in his grappling game, so Chandler should be looking to use his wrestling more than outright brawling, but Chandler is now 40 and has taken a lot of damage in his career. Ruffy is an explosive and dynamic striker who should be able to melt Chandler if he connects with a few clean shots. Chandler has never had great defense and always fights face-first, a style that should leave him open for those blistering Ruffy strikes to connect. Unless Chandler is pushing for takedowns from the jump, this fight ends before the halfway point.
Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
Josh Hokit via KO/TKO/DQ (-135)
Lewis is always live in any fight because he has unbelievable one-punch power. It’s entirely possible for Lewis to catch Hokit with a big shot early and end the fight, but the more likely way the fight plays out is Hokit’s hand speed allowing him to blister Lewis with shots while Lewis looks for a bomb to land. I do have concerns with how often Hokit got hit by Curtis Blaydes, but simply taking the fight to end by knockout is -300, so our play is the more likely outcome, Hokit to stop an aging, faded version of Lewis with strikes.
Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Fight to end by decision (-160)
This fight has all the potential to be a dull, weird striking battle. Both fighters have solid defense, and neither figures to be looking for a takedown (both fighters have scored a takedown in one fight in their respective careers). Zahabi has a style that often neutralizes an opponent’s biggest strikes, while O’Malley hasn’t recently looked like he is interested in showing the kind of explosiveness he produced early in his UFC career. That all feels like a recipe for a fight that cruises right to a decision without much chance of a stoppage. O’Malley should get the win, but there’s an outside chance Zahabi could edge out the decision, so simply taking the method of victory at a solid -160 price feels like the right call.
Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira
Alex Pereira moneyline (-108)
Pereira is carrying a legitimate heavyweight body into this fight, so it’s unlikely Gane can muscle him around and randomly attempt to become a wrestler (don’t forget that Gane was badly outwrestled by Francis Ngannou). Gane so consistently underperforms against the best fighters he faces that I don’t trust him in this one. The one time Gane fought up to his ability against an elite fighter he turned in almost one very good round against Tom Aspinall before blinding the champion with a double eye poke. Pereira has the better striking overall, and I trust him more to perform in a big spot than Gane.
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Fight to start Round 2: Yes (-185)
As much as I’d love to say to pull the trigger on Gaethje as an underdog, I can’t do it. There are a lot of strange factors in this fight, such as Topuria returning from time away from the sport while dealing with a nasty divorce, potentially severe storms, heat and humidity, a unique venue, bugs and so on. Most of those factors are true in every other fight on the card, of course, but I mention them for this fight specifically because there is too much certainty in an easy Topuria win for my liking. Yes, Topuria is much better than Paddy Pimblett, who Gaethje upset to win the interim title, but Gaethje is still tough as nails and if Topuria isn’t careful, Gaethje’s fists can flip the fight on its head in a hurry. But, all of those unique factors I have mentioned also make it likely that this fight doesn’t end in a quick knockout. What a line like -185 that the fight simply gets out of the first round provides is a parlay booster. If you believe very strongly about a bet like Pereira -108, adding on this fight hitting the second round gives you a two-fight parlay at +196. Or, you could take a shot on Gaethje at +380 and really spice up your night.
Who wins UFC White House: Topuria vs. Gaethje, and how exactly does the fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks and analysis from the incomparable expert who is up over $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks, and find out.
