The time has come and after a marathon Rugby World, New Zealand and South Africa face up in the final in Paris on Saturday night. We take a look at the big game from a betting angle.
A reminder that the long-term Rugby World Cup markets are constantly updated and you can click here for the latest betting.
New Zealand
The All Blacks secured their spot in the RWC final by convincingly beating Argentina 44-6. The All Blacks were 17.5-point favourites heading into the match but covered that with ease. Argentina did not put up the fight that may expected of them. The half time score was 20-6 to New Zealand and they kept The Pumas quiet for the rest of the match as they dominated the second half.
New Zealand claimed their spot in the semis by narrowly beating Ireland 28-24 in the quarters. They placed 2nd in pool A and won 3 of their 4 pool matches only losing to hosts France in their opener.
The All Blacks are 8/10 to land a 4th Rugby World Cup.
South Africa
South Africa find themselves competing for the trophy after their extremely narrow win of 16-15 against England last weekend. SA went in 13.5-point favourites and although conditions were tough, they seemed flat for most of the match and had to roll most of their bench in earlier than usual for fresh legs.
The English led 12-6 at half time and maintained their lead until the very end of the match. In the 68th minute Snyman charged over the line to score the first and only try of the match, Pollard converted to make it 13-15 and the Boks sealed their fate by winning and converting a 49m scrum penalty, sending them straight to the finals! Credit to England who in my opinion played a better game that day, but the South Africans pulled it together in the last 10 minutes as only a champion side could.
South Africa secured their spot in the top 4 by narrowly beating France 29-28 in a heart-stopping match and finished 2nd in Pool B after winning 3 of their 4 pool matches with their only loss coming to Ireland.
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HEAD-TO-HEAD
These sides last met in August of this year in Twickenham during a RWC warm-up match where South Africa beat New Zealand by a whopping 35-7. The South Africans led 14-0 at half time and used the 7-1 bench split for the 1st time.
Of the teams 6 most recent head-to-head matches dating back to 2021, each team have won 3 and the total average points per match is 47.8. The teams competed against one another in the 2019 RWC where NZ took the win of 23-13 in the pool stages.
Betting
New Zealand 5/6
Draw 20/1
South Africa 12/10
Handicap: New Zealand (-1.5)
Suggested Bet: South Africa and under 41.5 points (27/10)
I predict that this will be an incredibly tight final and the bookies agree with very little between the sides in the betting . With unfavourable conditions predicted for this weekend and from the extremely tight matches we have seen with South Africa’s most recent quarter finals against France (28-29) and England (15-16), I predict this will be a relatively low scoring final where teams will be forced to capitalize on penalties and potential drop goals.
This should suit the Springboks who I believe can get on top upfront and a I will be backing them to win a low scoring game.
Another bet of interest is the Tribet where you can back either team to win by 6 points or less including the draw at 13/10
Odds correct at time of writing but subject to change
