Upgrades country’s growth to 4.4% in 2027 on macroeconomic stability
Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to widen from 4.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 6.0 percent in 2026, supported by higher oil export earnings and increased foreign exchange inflows, the World Bank has said.
The World Bank, in its latest Africa Economic Update, said Nigeria’s stronger external position reflects the benefits of higher hydrocarbon export earnings amid elevated global oil prices.
It said strong external positions in countries including Angola, Gabon, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo and South Sudan reflected higher hydrocarbon export earnings and increased foreign exchange inflows.
“Oil-exporting economies are projected to see a marked improvement in their current account balances in 2026, supported by higher oil export revenues and stronger terms of trade,” the World Bank said.
The current account surplus, however, is projected to narrow gradually to 3.4 percent of GDP by 2028 as oil prices normalise and import demand strengthens.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said last month that the current account surplus rose significantly from $4.49 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and $5.17 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
At the regional level, the World Bank said Sub-Saharan Africa’s average current account deficit is projected to continue narrowing, falling to about 3.2 percent of GDP in 2026 from more than 5 percent three years earlier.
It attributed the improvement partly to resilient global demand for African exports and higher commodity prices, driven in part by the conflict in the Middle East.
The Bank said the effect was particularly pronounced among oil-producing countries, where persistently high oil prices are expected to boost export revenues and foreign exchange inflows.
Oil-exporting economies in the region are projected to achieve a current account surplus of about 3.4 percent of GDP in 2026, compared with a deficit in the previous year.
The World Bank said mineral and metal exporters would also benefit from stronger commodity export receipts, resulting in significant reductions in their current account deficits.
However, it warned that the improvement in external positions is creating a growing divergence between resource-rich commodity exporters and import-dependent economies.
Non-resource-rich economies are projected to experience a slight deterioration in their current account positions in 2026 compared with the previous year, driven by higher oil prices and continued imports of capital goods.
“While these imports support future growth, they place significant pressure on current account balances and create continued financing needs through 2028,” the World Bank said.
Looking ahead to 2027 and 2028, the Bank expects commodity exports to remain the main driver of current account strengthening, supported by continued exports of gold, copper, cobalt, bauxite and iron ore.
It added that tourism receipts and remittances would also remain important sources of external balance support.
For Nigeria, however, the outlook remains sensitive to global commodity markets and geopolitical developments.
The World Bank warned that instability in the Middle East could drive international oil prices higher because of concerns over energy supply disruptions.
While higher oil prices could benefit oil-exporting countries through increased export earnings and improved current account balances, the Bank said oil-importing and non-resource-rich economies would face rising import costs and increased external pressures.
For Nigeria, the Bank projects economic growth to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28.
The stronger growth outlook is expected to be supported by improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
Hope Moses-Ashike is an Associate Editor, Banking and Finance, with more than a decade of experience reporting on Nigeria’s financial system and broader economy. She closely tracks market movements, monetary policy decisions, company disclosures, regulatory actions, economic indicators, and global developments, and interprets what they mean for businesses, investors, policymakers, and households. Her reporting helps readers understand complex issues such as inflation trends, foreign exchange market dynamics, interest rate decisions, bank performance, and investment risks.
She also covers major international events and periodically travels to Washington, D.C., to report on the World Bank/IMF Spring and Annual Meetings.
Her dedication to financial journalism has earned her multiple recognitions and invitations to high-level professional development programmes. She is an alumna of the International Visitors Leadership Programme (IVLP) in the United States and holds an Advanced Financial Journalism Certificate from the Press Association Training in London, UK. Her other notable achievements include completing the Lagos Business School CMC Programme, the Bloomberg Media Africa Initiative Programme, and a Master Class in Journalism at Rhodes University in South Africa.
