A group of new accounts on the prediction market, Polymarket, made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for the new customers.
These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced yesterday, US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day, Trump had issued a warning on social media that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8pm (Eastern Time) deadline.
An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform, Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial “Yes” bets on Tuesday just before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.
One of these wallets, created Tuesday morning about 10am (New York time), placed roughly $US72,000 ($102,000) in bets at an average price of 8.8¢. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0 per cent to 100 per cent chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $US200,000.
Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $US125,500.
AP
